Prediction markets are signaling growing downside risk for Bitcoin, as traders increasingly hedge against a deeper pullback in 2026. After a weekend sell-off briefly dragged BTC below $75,000, sentiment on Polymarket has turned sharply bearish, reflecting broader concerns around market structure, liquidity, and macroeconomic pressure.
Bitcoin Price Outlook Turns Bearish as Polymarket Bets Spike
On Polymarket, the probability of Bitcoin falling below $65,000 in 2026 climbed to 72%, with nearly $1 million in trading volume backing the bet. This marks a sharp shift in sentiment following recent price weakness and highlights rising skepticism about Bitcoin’s medium-term trajectory.
Additional high-volume wagers include predictions that BTC will drop below $55,000, carrying an implied probability of 61%, while bets that Bitcoin could reclaim $100,000 by the end of the year stand at 54%. Together, these positions reflect a highly polarized market grappling with uncertainty rather than a clear directional consensus.
The surge in bearish bets has effectively erased optimism that followed President Donald Trump’s November 2024 election victory, a period when Bitcoin rallied on expectations of more favorable crypto policy.
This downturn also marked a notable milestone for Michael Saylor’s Strategy, the world’s largest publicly traded Bitcoin holder, as BTC prices dipped below the firm’s average purchase cost for the first time since late 2023.
Analysts Cite Bear Market Conditions and Tight US Liquidity
Several analysts argue that the sell-off reflects a broader bear market rather than a temporary correction. CryptoQuant reiterated that Bitcoin has been in a bear phase since November 2025, when it fell below its 365-day moving average, a key long-term trend indicator.
CryptoQuant’s head of research, Julio Moreno, cautioned traders against attempting to time the bottom, noting that bear market lows typically take months to form after a major downturn.
Meanwhile, Quantum Economics CEO Mati Greenspan emphasized that Bitcoin’s core purpose is not price appreciation but financial independence from governments and banks, framing volatility as a secondary outcome rather than a design flaw.
From a macro perspective, Raoul Pal, founder of Global Macro Investor, attributed Bitcoin’s weakness to tight US liquidity conditions, suggesting that the downturn is driven more by global financial constraints than crypto-specific fundamentals.
Despite the bearish sentiment reflected in prediction markets, several major institutions remain optimistic. Grayscale Investments previously forecast Bitcoin could surpass $126,000 by mid-2026, citing institutional adoption and clearer US regulatory frameworks. Standard Chartered and Bernstein have also projected BTC reaching $150,000 in 2026, although both firms recently revised their outlooks lower due to slower ETF inflows.
