Bitcoin reaching $1 million per coin may sound unrealistic to many investors, but according to Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan, the cryptocurrency doesn’t need to overtake half of gold’s market to achieve that milestone. Instead, capturing a much smaller share of the global store-of-value market could be enough.
In a recent analysis, Hougan explained that many critics assume Bitcoin would need to take about 50% of gold’s market capitalization to reach a seven-figure price. However, this assumption overlooks an important factor: the continuous growth of the broader store-of-value market.
Currently, the store-of-value market is largely dominated by Gold, which has experienced strong growth over the past two decades. As economic uncertainty increases, investors are increasingly turning to assets that preserve value over time.
Growth of the Store-of-Value Market Could Boost Bitcoin
Since 2004, gold’s total market value has grown significantly—from roughly $2.5 trillion to around $38 trillion. That represents an average annual growth rate of about 13%, driven by factors such as rising government debt, geopolitical tensions, and loose global monetary policies.
If this growth trend continues, the total store-of-value market could expand to approximately $121 trillion within the next decade.
In that scenario, Bitcoin would not need to dominate the market to hit $1 million. Hougan estimates that the cryptocurrency would only need to capture around 17% of the market to reach that price level.
This perspective suggests that Bitcoin’s long-term potential depends not just on replacing traditional assets but also on participating in a growing market where investors are increasingly searching for alternatives to fiat currencies.
Institutional adoption could also play a major role in this expansion. Large investors, including sovereign wealth funds, pension funds, and exchange-traded funds (ETFs), are gradually increasing their exposure to digital assets. As allocation to cryptocurrencies grows, Bitcoin’s market share within the store-of-value category could rise as well.
Bitcoin vs Gold: A Growing Divergence
Despite the long-term bullish outlook, recent market behavior shows that Bitcoin is not currently moving in tandem with gold.
Earlier this year, the price of Gold reached a new all-time high of $5,327 per ounce and remains close to that level. Meanwhile, Bitcoin is trading about 44% below its October peak, highlighting a short-term divergence between the two assets.
Some prominent investors remain skeptical about Bitcoin’s ability to function as a reliable store of value. Billionaire hedge fund manager Ray Dalio recently warned that Bitcoin may not be an ideal long-term safe-haven asset. According to Dalio, gold continues to be a more trusted reserve asset, particularly because central banks actively hold and purchase it.
He also suggested that Bitcoin often behaves more like a technology stock than a traditional hedge against economic instability.
Research perspectives from NYDIG echo similar concerns. The firm’s global head of research, Greg Cipolaro, noted that Bitcoin currently does not appear to be priced by markets as a hedge against inflation, sovereign risk, or macroeconomic instability.
