Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) showed signs of recovery on Monday, pulling in $562 million in fresh inflows after suffering a steep $1.5 billion sell-off the previous week. While the rebound offered temporary relief, analysts warn that ongoing institutional selling and macroeconomic uncertainty could continue to pressure Bitcoin and the broader crypto market.
The renewed inflows coincided with a modest Bitcoin price recovery. After briefly falling below $75,000 over the weekend, BTC bounced back to trade above $79,000 intraday before settling near $78,000, according to CoinGecko data.
Bitcoin ETF Inflows Recover, But Year-to-Date Flows Remain Negative
Monday’s $562 million inflow marked the end of a four-day outflow streak for spot Bitcoin ETFs, according to SoSoValue. However, the broader picture remains cautious. Year-to-date, Bitcoin ETFs are still down roughly $1 billion in net outflows.
So far this year, total outflows have reached approximately $4.6 billion, offset by $3.6 billion in inflows. This imbalance highlights continued investor hesitation, particularly from institutions adjusting exposure amid volatile market conditions.
Ether ETFs have fared worse in comparison. On the same day Bitcoin ETFs rebounded, Ether ETFs recorded minor outflows of $2.9 million, extending their losing streak and signaling weaker demand for ETH-based products.
Bitcoin Trades Below ETF Cost Basis as Analysts Eye Key Support Levels
Despite the recent inflows, Bitcoin is currently trading below the average ETF creation cost basis. Galaxy Digital’s head of research, Alex Thorn, noted that BTC is about 7.3% under the $84,000 average ETF cost basis, having dipped as much as 10% below that level over the weekend.
Historically, Bitcoin has not stayed below this metric for extended periods. Thorn suggested that the ETF cost basis could act as near-term support, similar to previous cycles in mid-2024 when BTC briefly traded nearly 10% below that level before stabilizing.
Thorn also pointed to Bitcoin’s realized price of roughly $56,000, a level where BTC has historically found support during bull market phases. Additional long-term indicators, including the 50-week and 200-week moving averages, suggest structural strength remains intact despite short-term weakness.
Meanwhile, CoinShares’ head of research James Butterfill highlighted several ongoing challenges, including unfavorable capital flows, Bitcoin’s recent decoupling from global liquidity trends, geopolitical tensions, and uncertainty around U.S. monetary policy following Kevin Warsh’s designation as Federal Reserve Chair.
Still, Butterfill remains cautiously optimistic. He noted that long-term concerns over currency depreciation and Bitcoin’s lag behind liquidity trends could set the stage for a catch-up rally once macro conditions stabilize.
