Bitcoin is showing strong signs of a potential breakout, with analysts suggesting a 70% probability that it could reach new all-time highs within the next two weeks. The momentum is largely fueled by growing institutional demand, spot ETF inflows, and a generally stable market structure.
Market Conditions Favor a Breakout
According to Bitcoin researcher Axel Adler Jr., current market conditions are well-balanced. The Short-Term Holder (STH) MVRV Z-Scores are hovering near zero, indicating that the market is neither overbought nor oversold. This stability suggests that Bitcoin may be in a consolidation phase, building strength before a potential breakout.
One of the key metrics to watch is Bitcoin’s position relative to the STH realized price. Right now, the BTC price is just above this level, which is a bullish signal, often associated with upcoming rallies. While there were minor overheating indicators ahead of the recent Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, the broader sentiment remains positive.
Institutional Demand Strengthens the Bullish Case
Institutional interest in Bitcoin continues to grow, adding fuel to the rally. Since September 9, U.S.-based spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen over $2.8 billion in net inflows, a strong sign of confidence from large investors.
This surge in demand has helped push Bitcoin’s price up by 8.5% this month, reaching around $117,800. If Bitcoin closes above $117,500, analysts believe it would confirm a bullish market structure, significantly reducing the chances of a pullback below $114,000.
However, short-term volatility is still on the table. A brief price correction or pullback may occur before Bitcoin resumes its upward momentum. Analysts are closely watching the liquidity gaps and how they interact with growing bullish momentum, which will play a critical role in determining Bitcoin’s next major move.
