Bitcoin (BTC) suddenly jumped on April 9, rising by 5% in less than an hour to reclaim the $83,500 mark, which it had last seen on April 6. After a major political event, prices went up sharply. U.S. President Donald Trump announced a 90-day pause on reciprocal taxes, but not for China. This move made people optimistic about the economy. The S&P 500 went up 8%, and crypto supporters changed their minds about being negative. However, professional traders are cautious about price action, and Bitcoin’s derivative measures show that people have mixed feelings about it.
Equities Rise, But Bitcoin Derivatives Fall
U.S. stocks were happy about Trump’s decision to pause tariffs, but Bitcoin’s futures and options markets weren’t as sure of themselves. The BTC futures premium quickly went above the neutral 5% level but couldn’t keep going up. This shows buyers are still unsure what to do, mostly because they don’t know what the Federal Reserve will do with interest rates. The rise in the futures premium from March 31’s level of 3% shows that people are becoming more optimistic but not completely sure of themselves.
Ten-Year Yield Volatility Clouds Bullishness
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes from March 18–19 made buyers even more worried. The minutes brought up worries about stagflation, and the CME FedWatch Tool shows that the chance of rate cuts by September 17 dropped from 97.6% to 69.7% in just one day. Economists were also worried about the falling 10-year Treasury yield, which shows that people are losing faith in how the U.S. handles its finances.
Options Market Goes Neutral After Fear
The options market also showed that people were not sure what to do. After China put taxes on goods from other countries, Bitcoin’s 25% delta skew went up to 12%, which shows that people want to buy protective puts. However, Trump’s announcement quickly calmed people, and the measure returned to a neutral 3%.
Conclusion
Positive geopolitics and a growing stock market sped up Bitcoin’s quick rise to $83.5K, giving the market a much-needed boost. Even so, professional Bitcoin traders are still cautious because derivative measures show that the rally hasn’t really started to pick up speed yet.
