Bitcoin could remain under pressure against traditional markets longer than many investors expect, according to crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen. Despite rising optimism around a potential rotation from gold and silver into Bitcoin, Cowen warns that such expectations may be premature as the broader market cycle matures.
Bitcoin is currently trading at $82,859, down nearly 8% over the past week, while overall crypto sentiment has deteriorated sharply. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index recently registered an “extreme fear” score of 16, signaling heightened caution among investors.
Bitcoin Likely to Lag Stocks as Gold and Silver Surge
Cowen believes Bitcoin will “keep bleeding against the stock market,” arguing that hopes for a near-term capital rotation from precious metals into crypto may be misguided. Gold and silver have both surged to new all-time highs, with gold reaching $5,608.33 and silver climbing to $121.64, according to Trading Economics.
Adding fuel to the metals rally, Citi recently forecast silver could reach $150 within three months, citing strong Chinese demand and a weakening US dollar. While many crypto investors see these metals breaking records as a historical precursor to a Bitcoin rally, Cowen says the pattern may not repeat this time — at least not in the short term.
According to Cowen, Bitcoin’s relative weakness compared to equities suggests the current downtrend could persist as the market cycle continues to unwind.
Analysts Split on Timing of a Bitcoin Recovery
Not all analysts share Cowen’s cautious outlook. Swyftx lead analyst Pav Hundal believes the market may be approaching a turning point. He notes that Bitcoin bottoms have historically lagged gold’s relative strength by roughly 14 months, suggesting a potential bottom could form as early as February or March.
Hundal explains that gold typically outperforms during periods of macroeconomic stress, while Bitcoin tends to rally once risk appetite returns. If historical patterns hold, he expects market conditions to stabilize by the end of the current quarter.
Meanwhile, Bitwise Europe head of research Andre Dragosch recently stated that Bitcoin is trading at a significant discount relative to gold. He described the setup as rare and asymmetric, adding that if capital flows reverse, Q1 2026 could mark a major inflection point for Bitcoin.
