The Bitcoin network has undergone its first difficulty adjustment of 2026, marking a slight reprieve after a year defined by record-breaking competition and thinning profit margins. On Thursday, the network’s mining difficulty—a measure of how hard it is for computers to find the hash for a new block—fell to 146.4 trillion.
This adjustment follows a turbulent 2025 where the industry was pushed to its absolute limits. While the current difficulty has eased slightly, it remains a reflection of a highly competitive landscape. Data from CoinWarz suggests this dip may be short-lived; the next adjustment, estimated for January 22, 2026, is projected to climb back toward 148.20 T. This is largely because average block times are currently clocking in at 9.88 minutes, just under the network’s 10-minute target.
Why 2025 Was the Most Challenging Year for Bitcoin Miners
Looking back at 2025, the mining industry faced what many analysts call the “harshest margin environment” in the history of the protocol. The primary catalyst was the lingering effect of the April 2024 halving, which cut the block subsidy in half. When combined with a significant market downturn in late 2025, many mining operations found themselves underwater.
The industry hit a breaking point in November when the “hash price”—the expected revenue a miner earns from their computing power—fell below $35 per petahash-second per day. For most miners, $40 is considered the “breakeven” line. When revenue dropped below this floor, many firms were forced to decide whether to continue operating at a loss or shut down their hardware entirely.
Beyond the internal mechanics of Bitcoin, external pressures played a massive role in the 2025 struggle:
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Macroeconomic Headwinds: Inflation and shifting monetary policies globally increased operational costs.
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Trade Policy: Tariffs enacted by the Trump administration created significant friction in the supply chain for high-end ASIC mining rigs, leading to equipment shortages and higher capital expenditures.
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Market Volatility: A “flash crash” in October 2025 saw Bitcoin prices tumble 30%, eventually bottoming out near $80,000 in November.
The Road to Recovery: Hashrate and Price Outlook
Despite the “crypto winter” vibes of late 2025, the network has shown remarkable resilience. Although Bitcoin is currently trading around $90,700—well below its October all-time high of $125,000—the hashrate remains near record levels. This suggests that while smaller, less efficient miners may be struggling, institutional players are still committed to securing the network.
The drop to 146.4 T provides a small amount of breathing room for those still plugged in, but the trend for 2026 remains focused on efficiency. Miners are now prioritizing newer, more energy-efficient hardware to survive the high-difficulty environment. As the network stabilizes in early 2026, the industry is watching closely to see if the hash price can climb back above the critical $40 threshold to ensure long-term sustainability.
