Jan van Eck, CEO of VanEck, believes Bitcoin may be close to forming a market bottom as the traditional four-year cycle approaches its final phase. In a recent interview with CNBC, he suggested that investors may be overanalyzing Bitcoin’s recent price movements, arguing that the long-standing halving cycle remains the dominant force behind the current bear market.
According to van Eck, Bitcoin’s fixed supply of 21 million coins and its halving mechanism — which reduces miner rewards every four years — continue to shape price behavior more than short-term macroeconomic factors or shifts in fundamentals.
Historically, Bitcoin has followed a pattern of three years of price growth followed by a significant correction in the fourth year. Van Eck noted that 2026 represents that fourth year in the current cycle, which explains why the market has experienced downward pressure. However, he now believes the correction phase is nearing completion.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin (BTC) is trading around $68,400, reflecting a 2.6% gain in the past 24 hours and a 7.6% increase over the last week, based on data from CoinGecko.
Understanding Bitcoin’s Four-Year Halving Cycle
Bitcoin’s four-year cycle is closely tied to its halving events. Approximately every four years, the reward that miners receive for validating transactions is cut in half. This reduces the rate at which new Bitcoin enters circulation, reinforcing its scarcity.
Van Eck emphasized that this predictable supply shock has historically driven Bitcoin’s long-term price trajectory. While some analysts argue that increasing institutional adoption, exchange-traded fund inflows, regulatory developments, and a weakening U.S. dollar could disrupt the traditional cycle, Van Eck maintains that the halving structure remains the primary market driver.
The debate over whether the four-year cycle still applies has intensified as the crypto market matures. However, from Van Eck’s perspective, the current downturn fits the established pattern rather than signaling a structural shift.
Geopolitical Tensions May Be Supporting Bitcoin’s Recovery
Bitcoin’s recent rebound has coincided with rising geopolitical tensions following military strikes between the United States, Israel, and Iran. While it is difficult to directly link price movements to specific events, Van Eck suggested that geopolitical instability may be contributing to renewed interest in Bitcoin.
In times of economic uncertainty or political conflict, digital assets can serve as alternative financial rails, allowing individuals and institutions to move capital outside of traditional banking systems. This utility may partially explain Bitcoin’s recent upward momentum.
