The crypto market is currently a battlefield of conflicting data, but economist Timothy Peterson is leaning on a specific historical metric to forecast a recovery. Despite recent price turbulence, Peterson suggests that Bitcoin’s track record over the last two years points toward a significant price jump by December 2026.
The 24-Month Rule: Breaking Down the 88% Probability
Peterson’s outlook is rooted in a simple yet effective observation: exactly half of the months in the last two-year cycle ended in the green. According to his analysis, when 50% of the past 24 months show positive returns, it acts as a technical inflection point. Peterson claims this specific frequency implies an 88% probability that Bitcoin will be trading higher ten months from now.
This data-driven optimism contrasts sharply with the current “Extreme Fear” gripping the market. While 2025 saw a literal 50/50 split—with gains in January, April, May, June, July, and September—the consistency of these cycles suggests that the long-term trend remains skewed toward growth, even when the immediate outlook feels bleak.
Market Sentiment vs. Expert Predictions: Who is Right?
While Peterson looks toward December, other analysts are bracing for more volatility. The market is currently grappling with a “fear” score of 9 on the Crypto Fear & Greed Index, a level rarely seen outside of major capitulation events.
-
The Bull Case: Michael van de Poppe, founder of MN Trading Capital, expects the “streak of five red months” to finally break, predicting a “massive candle” to close out the current period.
-
The Bear Case: Veteran trader Peter Brandt offers a more sobering view, suggesting that the “real bottom” for this cycle might not arrive until October 2026.
Currently, Bitcoin is trading roughly 25% below its early 2026 highs. For Peterson’s 88% probability to hold true, the asset needs to reclaim the ground lost since February, when it was trading near the $80,000 mark. Prediction platforms like Polymarket are already seeing bettors lean into this year-end theory, with November and December currently ranked as the most likely months for a “best-of-year” performance.
Interestingly, some social sentiment platforms like Santiment see a silver lining in the current gloom. They argue that as retail investors stop making loud price predictions on social media, the market “cools off,” often creating the quiet environment necessary for a healthy, sustainable reversal.
