The euphoria that often characterizes the start of a new crypto year seems to be hitting a wall of reality in 2026. While many investors expected a moonshot following the holiday season, CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju is offering a more tempered outlook: a period of “boring sideways” movement that could last for months.
Despite Bitcoin hovering around the $90,000 mark, the explosive momentum many hoped for has slowed. According to Ju, the massive capital inflows that fueled previous rallies have effectively “dried up” for the time being. Instead of pouring into digital assets, investors appear to be rotating their capital back into traditional markets, favoring “stocks and shiny rocks” like gold and silver, which have seen significant price surges recently.
The Shift Toward Traditional Havens and Market Sentiment
The current stagnation is a notable departure from historical trends. Data from CoinGlass shows that while January is typically modest, February and March have historically posted strong average gains of 13.12% and 12.21%, respectively. If Ju’s “sideways” prediction holds true, the first quarter of 2026 will be an anomaly in Bitcoin’s price history.
This cautious outlook is mirrored by the Crypto Fear & Greed Index, which has been stuck in “Fear” or “Extreme Fear” territory since November. With a recent score of 28, the index suggests that retail and institutional traders alike are hesitant to place big bets. This sentiment is further weighed down by warnings from veteran traders like Peter Brandt and Fidelity’s Jurrien Timmer, who suggested that Bitcoin could potentially retraces to the $60,000–$65,000 range before finding a solid floor.
Institutional ETF Activity vs. Bullish Long-Term Bets
While the immediate price action looks flat, the underlying infrastructure tells a slightly different story. Spot Bitcoin ETFs have shown surprising resilience in early 2026, recording over $925 million in net inflows during the first three trading days of the year. This suggests that while “fast money” might be rotating into gold, institutional long-term holders are still accumulating at these levels.
Not everyone agrees with the “boring” outlook, however. Some industry figures believe 2026 will be the year Bitcoin finally breaks its traditional four-year cycle. Bitwise head of research Ryan Rasmussen recently argued that the typical “three years up, one year down” pattern might be a thing of the past, predicting new all-time highs instead of a bear market. Additionally, some long-time bulls are still holding onto targets as high as $250,000, betting that mainstream adoption will eventually outweigh short-term macro rotations.
For now, investors may need to settle into a waiting game. If capital continues to favor traditional safe havens, the “sideways grind” could define the first half of the year, testing the patience of those looking for quick volatility.
