The Market-Value-to-Realized-Value (MVRV) ratio for Bitcoin, which is a keyway to figure out how much the cryptocurrency is worth, shows that Bitcoin may still have room to grow in the current cycle. Chapo, CEO of Assure DeFi and a crypto expert, thinks that Bitcoin’s MVRV could reach 3.2, which would mean a bullish trend for 2025 before it reaches its cycle top. His prediction, which he shared on February 26, shows how Bitcoin’s MVRV ratio has generally been a good way to predict market trends and possible price spikes.
History of MVRV Trends and Impact
The MVRV ratio plots Bitcoin’s market capitalization against its realized capitalization. This helps buyers determine whether the asset is too expensive or too affordable. Bitcoin’s MVRV last reached this high in April 2021, when its price went through the roof and hit $58,253. This was a big jump from its earlier levels. CoinMarketCap says that Bitcoin is selling at $84,416 right now, and its MVRV is around 1.95.
Bitcoin’s MVRV has increased a lot in the past when it gets close to its cycle peak. This is usually a sign that the market is about to change direction. When Bitcoin hit its all-time high of $109,000 on January 20, 2025, the MVRV spiked to 2.44. For example, when Bitcoins price hit $73,679 in March, the MVRV ratio rose to 2.67, showing that price increases and MVRV changes are directly related.
Profiting and Market Corrections
When Bitcoin’s MVRV goes up, it means that more Bitcoin users are making money, which usually means that more people are selling. Chapo says that at these times, people are making profits faster than people are buying, which changes the risk-reward mix for new Bitcoin investors.
But some experts are still being careful. Julio Moreno, head of research at CryptoQuant, says that Bitcoin could go down even more before it starts to go up again. He says that Bitcoin’s MVRV is below its 365-day moving average, which means that valuation measures are in correction territory.Â
Conclusion
Bitcoin’s MVRV ratio says it could grow in 2025, but traders should be careful. If the MVRV does reach 3.2 as expected, Bitcoin may experience another rise in value before reaching the top of its cycle. But market crashes and profits are still things to watch. Investors should always study before trading because investing in cryptocurrencies comes with risks.
