Wall Street banking giant Citi has revised its year-end Bitcoin price forecast, projecting a base-case scenario of $135,000. The updated outlook reflects growing user adoption, macroeconomic influences, and surging demand from spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
Bitcoin’s Base, Bullish, and Bearish Forecasts Explained
In its latest report, Citi outlines three possible outcomes for Bitcoin’s price by the end of the year:
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Base-case: $135,000
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Bullish scenario: $199,000
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Bearish outlook: $64,000
The base-case figure of $135,000 factors in a projected 20% increase in user activity, which Citi estimates supports a valuation of around $75,000 alone. However, macroeconomic headwinds—particularly weak equity markets and sluggish gold performance—are expected to subtract about $3,200 from this value.
A major contributor to the bullish shift is the estimated $15 billion in new ETF inflows, which Citi believes could add up to $63,000 to Bitcoin’s price. When combined, these elements form the basis for Citi’s updated projection.
ETF Flows Driving Bitcoin’s Price Momentum
Since the U.S. approved spot Bitcoin ETFs in January 2024, ETF flows have played a key role in price movements, now accounting for over 40% of recent gains. Citi analysts believe that this trend is only accelerating as crypto becomes more integrated into traditional financial systems.
The bank emphasizes that ETF-driven demand, combined with increasing user adoption and a maturing crypto market, has created upside potential that outweighs downside risk. Even in the bearish scenario, Bitcoin remains significantly above its pre-ETF average, underscoring the impact of institutional adoption.
As crypto continues to merge with mainstream finance, Citi’s outlook signals growing confidence in Bitcoin’s long-term value, especially as ETFs attract a new wave of capital and retail investors.
