Ethereum veteran Kain Warwick, founder of Synthetix and Infinex, has conceded a $50,000 bet after Ether failed to reach an ambitious $25,000 price target by the end of 2025. The wager highlights how even experienced crypto insiders overestimated the pace of Ethereum’s recovery following last year’s market downturn.
Warwick made the bet in November with Multicoin Capital managing partner Kyle Samani, who doubted that Ether could climb so high within the timeframe. As 2025 closed, Ether was trading near $2,980—well short of the target and roughly 13.7% lower than where it started the year, according to CoinMarketCap data.
Why Kain Warwick’s $25K Ethereum Bet Fell Short
Ether’s underperformance was partly driven by broader market turbulence. A major crypto liquidation event in October—worth an estimated $19 billion—sparked a sharp sell-off that dragged ETH down to around $2,767 before a slow and uneven recovery followed.
Despite the loss, Warwick noted that Ether was still up roughly 50% from the time the bet was made, joking that he “just needed another clean 8x” for the prediction to work out. Following the result, he revised his outlook, suggesting a more conservative $10,000 ETH price target for 2026.
Kyle Samani publicly called in the bet on social media with a blunt “Time to pay up,” marking the end of one of crypto’s more talked-about price wagers.
Ethereum Price Outlook and Key Milestones in 2025
Warwick wasn’t alone in his optimism. Throughout late 2024 and early 2025, several prominent analysts floated five-figure price targets for Ethereum. BitMine chair Tom Lee projected ETH could reach between $10,000 and $12,000, while BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes reiterated his own $10,000 outlook.
Although Ether didn’t hit those price levels, the Ethereum network did make notable progress. Two major upgrades—Pectra in May and Fusaka in December—were rolled out in 2025. According to the Ethereum Foundation, the Fusaka upgrade moved the network closer to near-instant transactions.
Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin also emphasized that technical upgrades alone aren’t enough, stating that Ethereum must continue evolving to fulfill its mission of becoming a foundational “world computer” for a more open and decentralized internet.
