The window for major cryptocurrency legislation is rapidly shrinking. As the Senate faces a jam-packed calendar ahead of the upcoming November elections, crypto financial services firm Galaxy Digital has officially lowered its forecast for the passage of the highly anticipated CLARITY Act.
Galaxy’s head of research, Alex Thorn, announced that the firm has reduced its estimated probability of the bill becoming law in 2026 from an optimistic 75% down to just 60%. This marks a notable shift in sentiment from late May, when the successful Senate Banking Committee markup had temporarily boosted the industry’s hopes. Now, the harsh reality of Washington’s legislative timeline is setting in, and time to finalize this crucial crypto market structure bill is running out.
Why the Legislative Window is Rapidly Closing
The primary hurdle facing the CLARITY Act isn’t necessarily a lack of interest, but a severe lack of time. Thorn pointed out that the bill must clear the Senate before lawmakers leave for their month-long August recess, which kicks off in late July. Historically, it is incredibly rare for major legislation to gain traction in the months immediately preceding an election, as politicians shift their focus away from Capitol Hill and toward their campaign trails. Once that recess begins, the legislative window effectively slams shut for the year.
To make matters more complicated, passing the bill requires jumping through several procedural hoops. The legislation still needs to secure at least 60 votes on the Senate floor to avoid a filibuster. From there, it must survive an amendment process, undergo reconciliation with the Senate Agriculture Committee’s text, and finally head back to the House for approval on any changes. For all of this to happen, Senate Majority Leader John Thune must realistically schedule floor time in July; anything later simply won’t fit into the calendar.
Sticking Points and Growing Industry Skepticism
Beyond the ticking clock, behind-the-scenes negotiations appear to have stalled. Thorn noted that there is currently no evidence that discussions around the bill have advanced, with provisions concerning ethics and illicit finance remaining major, unresolved sticking points. While Galaxy has stated it would gladly revise its odds back up if Senate leaders commit to a timeline and finalize these provisions, other financial heavyweights are even more doubtful. Analysts at JPMorgan recently placed the chances of the CLARITY Act passing this year at under 50%, while Bitwise investment chief Matt Hougan cited conversations with D.C. insiders who put the odds at a dismal 5% to 30%.
Despite the growing skepticism, the bill’s champions in Congress refuse to back down. Senator Cynthia Lummis, chair of the Senate Banking Subcommittee on Digital Assets, has taken to social media over a dozen times this month to rally support for the legislation. Acknowledging the friction over illicit finance and ethics, she confirmed that lawmakers are actively working to resolve the issues threatening the bill’s floor vote. For Lummis and her supporters, abandoning the effort now is out of the question, as she recently stated, emphasizing that they did not come this far just to quit at the five-yard line.
