Bitcoin’s famous four-year market cycle has long shaped investor expectations, but in 2025, that theory is facing its biggest challenge yet. With institutional ETFs, shifting US regulations, rising global liquidity, and changing macroeconomic conditions, analysts are divided on whether Bitcoin’s traditional cycle has ended — or simply evolved.
Historically, Bitcoin’s price action revolved around its halving events, which reduce miner rewards every four years and limit new supply. This mechanism typically triggered a predictable pattern: accumulation, a post-halving bull market peaking about 18 months later, followed by a deep correction and multi-year bear market.
While some believe Bitcoin is following that familiar path again, others argue that structural changes in the market have permanently altered how BTC behaves.
Why Analysts Say Bitcoin’s Four-Year Cycle Is Breaking Down
A growing number of analysts believe the four-year cycle began to lose relevance in 2025, largely due to sustained institutional demand. Spot Bitcoin ETFs, corporate treasury allocations, and broader financial adoption have introduced long-term capital flows that didn’t exist in previous cycles.
Nick Ruck, director of LVRG Research, explained that ETF inflows and corporate participation have reduced volatility and softened the kind of post-peak crashes seen in earlier years. Instead of a sharp boom-and-bust cycle, Bitcoin may now be entering a longer, more gradual expansion phase.
Several major institutions agree. Grayscale expects Bitcoin to reach a new all-time high in the first half of 2026, citing macroeconomic pressures like currency debasement and a more favorable regulatory environment in the US. Standard Chartered has also declared the four-year cycle “no longer valid,” forecasting Bitcoin at $150,000 by the end of 2026.
Prominent industry voices — including Cathie Wood, Arthur Hayes, Ki Young Ju, Matt Hougan, Raoul Pal, and others — have echoed this view, suggesting Bitcoin is transitioning into a structurally different asset class driven more by liquidity cycles than halving events alone.
Why Some Analysts Believe the Cycle Still Matters
Despite these arguments, not everyone is convinced the four-year cycle is over. Some analysts point out that Bitcoin’s recent 30% decline from its post-halving peak closely mirrors previous cycle behavior. From this perspective, BTC may already be in the early stages of a bear market.
10x Research CEO Markus Thielen believes Bitcoin entered a bear phase in late 2025, pricing in a slowing global economy earlier than other risk assets. Well-known market analyst “Rekt Capital” also maintains that the four-year structure remains intact, suggesting that even if the cycle appears different, it may simply be “leveling up” rather than disappearing.
There’s also a psychological factor at play. Many traders expect the four-year cycle to repeat and sell in anticipation of a downturn, which can itself create downward pressure. PlanB, creator of the Stock-to-Flow model, argues that much of the selling comes from long-term holders still influenced by the 2021 crash and investors expecting a familiar post-halving bear market.
