Market-Value-to-Realized-Value (MVRV) is a key measure that shows whether an asset is overvalued or undervalued. It indicates that Bitcoin still has room to grow before its cycle peak. Chapo, CEO of Assure DeFi and a crypto analyst, says that Bitcoin’s MVRV could hit 3.2 this cycle, meaning that 2025 will be another bullish year. In a post on X on February 26 Chapo said that past data shows that when MVRV goes up, Bitcoin’s price goes up a lot. Bitcoins price is around $84,416, and its MVRV is 1.95. This means Bitcoin is still a long way from its cycle peak, which means it has a lot of room to go up.
Past MVRV Trends Predict 2025 Bullishness
Chapo said that the last time MVRV hit 3.2 was in April 2021, when Bitcoin took off and reached $58,253, a 101% increase from its price at the beginning of that year. MVRV is the ratio of Bitcoin’s market capitalization to its realized capitalization. This ratio helps buyers determine whether an asset has been bought or sold too much. An undervalued stock has a low MVRV. An overvalued stock has a high MVRV, which means that many buyers are making money, making sell-offs more likely.
Market-Top MVRV Rises
Chapo said that MVRV jumps vertically at the top of Bitcoin’s cycle, which means that people are taking their profits. The MVRV was 2.44 when Bitcoin hit its all-time high of $109,000 in January 2025. In the same way, Bitcoin hit $73,679 in March 2024, and the MVRV reached its highest point of 2.67.
Market correction before surge
Chapo is still optimistic, but Julio Moreno, the head of studies at CryptoQuant, has a slightly different view. He said that Bitcoin’s MVRV is below its 365-day moving average right now, which means the market might need more time to fix itself before it can start going up again.
Conclusion
According to Bitcoin’s MVRV, the bull market isn’t over yet, and experts think it will go up even more before the cycle peak. There may be short-term drops, but MVRV spikes before a significant market peak, which suggests that next year will be bullish.
