Lyn Alden is a macroeconomist who is known for her in-depth analyses of the economy. She thinks Bitcoin could still end 2025 on a strong note, but not as strong as it could have been. Alden told Natalie Brunell on the April 17 episode of Coin Stories that U.S. President Donald Trump’s news of tariffs in February has made her less optimistic about Bitcoin’s future than before. “Before all this fuss about tariffs, I would have set a higher price goal,” Alden said. Bitcoin is trading at $84,950 at the time of writing. Alden thinks it will go up by the end of the year, though at a slower rate.
Liquidity Unlock
Alden stressed that a “massive liquidity unlock” could be the next thing that pushes Bitcoin towards more positive goals. Similarly to how macroeconomics reacts, she said that Bitcoin would probably do well if the U.S. bond market broke. The Federal Reserve responded with something like yield curve control or quantitative easing (QE).
Volatility Increased by 24/7 Crypto Trading
Cryptocurrency trading happens around the clock, making it more sensitive when traditional financial markets “freak out.” Bitcoin is 24/7, which often shows weekend worries about the Monday market opening. This is different from traditional markets, which have limited trade hours. “Things can get ready for Monday if people are worried about how things will go,” Alden said. “Some groups of capital can sell their Bitcoin on Sunday.” This constant access makes Bitcoin more volatile and sensitive to changes in the world’s money supply.
Will Bitcoin Outperform a 2003–2007 Market?
Alden thinks a market situation like before the Great Financial Crisis (2003–2007), when the U.S. dollar was weak and money poured into developing markets, gold, and commodities, could be good for Bitcoin. In that earlier period, alternative investments did very well while U.S. stocks did poorly.
Conclusion
Even though she lowered her prediction because of worries about trade policy, Lyn Alden is still optimistic about Bitcoin’s long-term prospects, especially as a “global liquidity barometer.” She found that over a year, Bitcoin moves in line with global M2 liquidity 83% of the time, doing better than assets like SPX, gold, and VT.
