Six newly created wallets on Polymarket reportedly earned nearly $1 million after correctly betting that the United States would launch a military strike against Iran before the end of February. The trades, placed just hours before explosions were first reported in Tehran, have sparked widespread concerns about potential insider trading on crypto-based prediction markets.
According to a report by Bloomberg, data shared by blockchain analytics firm Bubblemaps SA revealed that all six wallets were created in February. Nearly all of their trading activity focused on contracts predicting the timing of a possible US military action.
In several cases, the wallets purchased shares for as little as $0.10 just hours before the first reports of explosions surfaced. The precise timing of these bets quickly drew attention from onchain investigators, who noted that such patterns often resemble behavior associated with informed or insider trading.
Nicolas Vaiman, CEO of Bubblemaps, explained that in situations involving war or geopolitical conflict, sensitive information can circulate within certain circles before becoming public. Combined with the fact that Polymarket requires only a crypto wallet to participate — allowing for significant anonymity — this environment may incentivize early trades by those with privileged information.
Despite the suspicious timing, there is no direct proof of wrongdoing. Public warnings from Washington about potential military action had been circulating for weeks, which may have also influenced speculative trading activity.
Growing Scrutiny Over Prediction Market Insider Trading
The strike-related contracts saw enormous interest during the escalation, with more than $529 million flowing into various bets. The Feb. 28 contract alone generated roughly $90 million in trading volume, making it the most popular projected strike date. A Jan. 31 scenario followed with about $42 million in activity.
One of the flagged wallets had previously lost money on an earlier prediction before placing a larger wager that ultimately returned over $170,000 in profit. This mixed track record complicates claims of guaranteed insider behavior, though suspicions remain strong within the crypto community.
The US-Iran strike bets are not the first time insider trading allegations have surfaced on Polymarket. Earlier this week, a cluster of wallets reportedly earned more than $1.2 million on a contract tied to an onchain investigation involving DeFi platform Axiom. The profitable trades occurred shortly before blockchain investigator ZachXBT publicly alleged that an Axiom employee and associates had been engaged in insider trading since early 2025.
Last month, another Polymarket user made approximately $400,000 from a well-timed wager predicting the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. The trader reportedly placed around $32,000 on Maduro’s removal shortly before the news broke, again raising concerns about access to nonpublic information.
In response to growing scrutiny, US Representative Ritchie Torres is preparing new legislation titled the Public Integrity in Financial Prediction Markets Act of 2026. The proposed bill would prohibit elected officials, political appointees and executive-branch employees from trading prediction contracts tied to government decisions or political outcomes when they possess nonpublic information.
Global Regulatory Pressure Mounts on Polymarket
Beyond insider trading allegations, Polymarket is facing regulatory challenges worldwide. Authorities in several countries have classified its event-based contracts as unlicensed online gambling rather than legitimate financial trading products.
