Standard Chartered has reaffirmed its bold prediction that the stablecoin market will reach $2 trillion by the end of 2028, even as it scales back expectations for how much US Treasury bill demand the sector will generate.
In a recent report shared with Cointelegraph, analysts Geoffrey Kendrick and John Davies said that while the overall stablecoin market outlook remains strong, projected demand for short-term US Treasurys has been trimmed significantly.
The bank had previously estimated that stablecoins would drive $1.6 trillion in additional Treasury bill purchases by 2028. That figure has now been revised down to between $800 billion and $1 trillion.
Despite the adjustment, the analysts remain confident that stablecoins are positioned for long-term expansion.
Stablecoin Market Still on Track for $2 Trillion by 2028
The global stablecoin market, led by major players like Tether (USDT) and Circle’s USDC, has hovered around a $300 billion market capitalization in recent months. This stagnation comes amid a broader crypto market slowdown.
However, Standard Chartered views the current lull as temporary.
According to the bank, the passage of the US GENIUS Act in 2025 has strengthened regulatory clarity around dollar-backed stablecoins. Analysts describe the recent slowdown as “cyclical rather than structural,” reinforcing their belief that the sector will expand significantly over the next three years.
Stablecoins are typically backed by reserves such as short-term US Treasury bills. As adoption increases, issuers are expected to accumulate more government debt instruments to maintain dollar pegs and regulatory compliance.
Lower T-Bill Demand Forecast Still Significant
Although the T-bill demand projection has been reduced, the revised estimate of up to $1 trillion in fresh demand remains substantial.
Standard Chartered suggests that this potential influx of stablecoin-driven demand could still influence US government debt issuance strategy. Analysts pointed to comments from US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who indicated earlier this year that stablecoin legislation could become an important feature in financing the US government.
The Treasury has also acknowledged growing private-sector demand for short-term bills in recent refunding statements.
At the same time, analysts warned that strong demand from stablecoin issuers, combined with the Federal Reserve’s reserve management purchases and its move to replace maturing mortgage-backed securities with T-bills, could make Treasury bills increasingly scarce.
Beyond stablecoins, Standard Chartered has also maintained a long-term bullish outlook on crypto markets. The bank previously projected that Bitcoin could reach $500,000 by 2028. However, amid ongoing volatility, it recently lowered its 2026 Bitcoin price target from $150,000 to $100,000 and warned that prices could dip to $50,000 before any sustained recovery.
