The investment landscape for the start of 2026 is looking significantly clearer than it has in years. According to a recent Q1 outlook from global investment management firm VanEck, the market is entering a rare period of high visibility. This newfound transparency regarding fiscal policy and monetary direction is expected to create a “risk-on” environment, potentially fueling growth in tech stocks, AI, and digital assets.
While the broader market sentiment is leaning toward optimism, the path for Bitcoin (BTC) remains a point of intense discussion. After a volatile 2025 that saw traditional price cycles disrupted, investors are now weighing whether the “King of Crypto” is ready to reclaim its throne or if a short-term period of caution is still warranted.
Fiscal Stability and the New Macroeconomic Window
VanEck’s optimism is rooted in a stabilizing US fiscal picture. Analysts at the firm point out that while deficits are still high, they are finally shrinking as a percentage of GDP compared to the historic peaks seen during the pandemic era. This stabilization is critical because it helps anchor long-term interest rates and reduces “tail risks”—those unpredictable, extreme events that often send markets into a tailspin.
This sentiment is echoed by Tim Sun, a senior researcher at HashKey Group. Sun suggests that the first half of 2026 represents a “classic risk-on macroeconomic window.” With the US midterm elections on the horizon, the combination of fiscal stimulus, accommodative monetary conditions, and a more favorable regulatory environment provides a strong tailwind for riskier assets. Essentially, the “fluff” has been cleared out, leaving a leaner, more resilient market ready for growth.
The Bitcoin Question: Will BTC Hit Six Figures by February?
Despite the general market optimism, VanEck’s report highlights a “divergence” in Bitcoin’s typical behavior. The traditional four-year halving cycle was disrupted in 2025, leading to a more cautious near-term outlook from some analysts. Bitcoin has recently decoupled from traditional stocks and gold, largely due to a massive deleveraging event that occurred last October. This has left some institutional players hesitant, waiting for clearer signals before diving back in.
However, not everyone shares this caution. Many in the crypto space see the current environment—marked by geopolitical tension and friction between the US administration and the Federal Reserve—as the exact scenario Bitcoin was designed for. Crypto investor Will Clemente noted that as sovereign nations diversify reserves into metals and risk assets hit record highs, Bitcoin remains a primary hedge against systemic instability.
On the technical side, the outlook is even more aggressive. Michaël van de Poppe, founder of MN Fund, believes Bitcoin could reclaim the $100,000 mark before the end of January. He points out that BTC has consistently stayed above its 21-day moving average, a sign that buyers are aggressively accumulating during small dips. If Bitcoin can decisively break through the $92,000 resistance level, Van de Poppe predicts a surge to six figures within just ten days.
As we move deeper into the quarter, the “risk-on” narrative seems to be winning out. While the next three to six months may require a bit of patience for crypto holders, the structural foundations for a massive rally are clearly being laid.
