Ripple’s XRP has dropped sharply from earlier highs near $3 and is now trading around the $1.80 level. This pullback has fueled growing skepticism among retail traders about whether XRP can stage any meaningful rally before the end of 2025. Ironically, that pessimism itself may be setting the stage for a reversal.
Negative sentiment often marks moments when markets are closer to a bottom than a top. With XRP, both on-chain sentiment data and technical analysis are beginning to suggest that the recent weakness could be more of a setup than a breakdown.
Retail Pessimism and On-Chain Sentiment as a Contrarian Signal
On-chain analytics firm Santiment has highlighted a noticeable surge in negative social media commentary around XRP. Historically, Santiment notes that when retail sentiment turns deeply pessimistic, prices often stabilize and recover soon after. The logic is simple: when most traders expect lower prices, selling pressure may already be exhausted.
This “crowd is bearish” signal has worked as a contrarian indicator across multiple crypto cycles. In XRP’s case, the current wave of doubt could imply that downside risk is becoming more limited, even if short-term volatility remains. While sentiment alone cannot time a rally, it often improves the odds that a rebound is forming rather than a prolonged collapse.
Technical Wave Structure and the $5+ XRP Price Outlook
From a technical perspective, XRP analyst Dark Defender argues that the recent decline fits into a completed corrective structure. Using an Elliott Wave-style framework, he suggests that XRP has just finished a Wave 4 correction, which typically precedes another impulsive move higher.
According to this view, XRP’s price action unfolded as follows: an initial drop toward the $1.60 area earlier in the year, a strong rebound toward the mid-$3 range, and a final pullback into the $2.22–$1.88 zone. That zone, he argues, has now been “confirmed,” meaning the correction may be complete.
If this wave count holds, the next projected move points toward a much higher range, roughly between $5 and $5.85. This bullish scenario also depends on broader market conditions, particularly Bitcoin dominance. A weakening BTC dominance often signals renewed interest in altcoins, which could provide the liquidity and narrative shift XRP would need to rally.
In practical terms, traders and long-term investors are watching several key factors: whether negative sentiment begins to ease, how XRP behaves around the $1.60 support and $3.66 resistance levels, and whether capital rotates from Bitcoin into the wider altcoin market.
Bottom line: XRP sentiment is deeply negative, but that gloom may be a double-edged sword. Contrarian indicators and certain technical models suggest the pullback could be laying the groundwork for a larger rebound. While nothing is guaranteed, monitoring sentiment trends, Bitcoin dominance, and critical price zones may offer early clues about XRP’s next major move.
